Keybet rip off
#1
If you play or are aware of how key bet roulette works, please scroll down to the asterisks to save wasting your time. Thank you. If not, please read on. 

Key bet roulette is a game currently available to play in licensed betting offices where the fixed odds betting content is supplied by Scientific Games UK. 

The premise is straightforward. It's a category B2 random game that allows stakes of £5-£100 on a virtual roulette wheel  that has the standard numbers 0-36 and an extra key bet slot. Around the perimeter of the roulette wheel are 11 multiplier values and a 'POT' value of which one will be highlighted before the spin on the roulette wheel. The multipliers are x50,x50,x45,x40,x40,x35,x30,x30,x25,x20,x20 and the POT position will award the progressively increasing pot if the key bet slot is bet upon and the ball lands in key bet. 

I'm pretty sure for the vast majority of you I didn't need to type that. The game has been around for over a decade and it's no secret that many people travel around looking for key bets on good pots. To fulfil the minimum bet criteria they place £2 on red, £2 on black (or other such even money bets that oppose each other), £1 on key bet which is necessary to win the pot and repeat bet until their 38*12 or 1 in 456 shot comes in and they bag the pot. At roughly 3 spins per minute this equates to an average time of two and a half hours and an average cost of £167 to get the pot. You're going to get an average of £35 for landing the key on a £1 bet, 11 times for every pot. so that's 36 instances of losing a quid, one instance (0) of losing £5 and one instance (key bet) of making £30. so 11*£11=£121. Then the final cycle the same but you pay an extra £36+£5+£5 for the pot. so £121+£46 there's your cost. For every £5 staked the pot goes up by just over 6p (6.15p to be more precise) so you'll get an extra £28 of pot increases on top of the original pot when you win it. 
All this is assuming perfect average behaviour, no variance at all which in real life is not going to happen at all often. However we can say taking on key bets at £150 will be a venture on which you break even (before loyalty). The £150 pot point give or take a few squibbly wibbly pence is the break even point. Beyond that we are looking at profit. 
Playing key bets for profit is a very competitive game these days. If you want to take a seat you better be prepared to play £220 or above which is £70 profit or above for 2.5 hours work. A reasonable wage for a boring job. You get the odd mad shop whereby you find a bonkers high pot. However don't be banking on that. So let's get into the story.

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I've always spread myself rather thin. The most common slot machine player activity is to travel from pub to pub playing hi-tech AWP with the goal of daily profit. I've always enjoyed a mix. On a day I decide to play slots, I'll visit bingo, pubs, arcades and bookmakers, in fact almost any venue that offers cat B2/B3/C/D gaming machines. I've always been aware of key bet and had played a handful of them up until 2016. I didn't really entertain the game much. This is because you need a lot of time to play them if things don't go your way, they're competitively targeted by not just hardcore professional fruit machine players but also people who wouldn't know a p1 What's in your box if it shouted 'good one, it's a jackpot!' in their faces. Gangs of Albanians, retired librarians from Bromley, professional boxers from Crewe, a train driver from Wrexham, in essence keen amateurs who have sussed the premise of the game from a pot chaser's perspective etc etc. There was always enough 'other stuff' to make playing key bets a fairly unattractive proposition for me. I'd have the odd look in a bookie if I was passing but I had never considered actively driving around a route of bookmakers thinking 'hey you know what, I'm going to make it my sole purpose today to actively seek out a good pot and chase it out'. 
Cast your mind to late 2016. Pub fruits were granite. Sure there were bits bloops and blops. The main problem was that these blops, blips and blaps were gold dust to everyone. With less casual play than ever before and more players in the game ,every type of venue was most likely decidedly burnt. Also at the time Coral were offering a very attractive loyalty for their shops. Wager £400 on roulette whilst logged into the terminal with a Coral Connect and you'll get a £10 match play. That's 80 spins. So on a 450 spin process that's £50+ of free play. Not to mention the extra bonuses you got on your Coral Connect card after wagering consistently with Coral. You'd get £50 match play for fun after a while. So anyhow that 220 key which before looked like a rather sad grind, is a little more tasty. It's £120+ profit with the loyalty, play 2/3 in a day and you're smashing the national average wage. Easy money eh? 
So off I go not expected to be amazed. I cast my mind back a few years earlier when myself and Rob had worked our way around Birmingham playing Pure Pots on £20 spins ( a story for another day). I had checked the key bets on this route and had seen just one or two over the £200 mark. Hence, I was not expecting to be amazed in any way shape of form. This was an experimental day and if I went out and found nothing, I had seen, tried and failed to conquer but lived to fight another day. 
The first shop I walked into was a Coral and the first terminal I loaded was £420. Bloody hell! What I find. I instantly signed up to my brand new Connect card and things went to plan. two hours later I was £300 richer! Nice. 


The first quarter of 2017 saw my main income come from key bet roulette. I had good and bad processes but it was a Welcome revenue stream. I always keep statistics of the processes. I'm quite an obsessive personality and like to know what's what and make sure everything is in order. So I'd note down pot level at start, pot level when I won it and I'd keep a tally of 0s/5s/10s and Key bets along with numbers that have come in with the shot on the POT position on outer wheel and the values of the multipliers when key bet has landed. 
By around April 2017 and about 60 processes in, I could see that I was slightly unlucky with my frequency of key bet, I was getting key every 41-42 spins on average. However I was actually lucky on the length of time I had to sit, my average being two hours seventeen minutes. I tended to get key pot before 12 keys and as for 5/10/0 well pretty much bang on 1 in 38 with zero being ever so slightly warm. Over all I deduced I was running, 'slightly hot'. 

Let's have a quick resume of some highs and lows.

My quickest ever key. Three spins. It may have been four. 
Most number of keys in one shop played solo? Three keys varying from 250-280 all next to each other. It was a 4.5 hour session to get them all (playing simultaneously) and a disappointing £100 profit. 
Hottest ever key? Well key was already hottest number and this was a relatively low pot, a 220 in a Ladbrokes. I was only playing it for my GRID card loyalty and had I think a £20 match play. so that's 4 spins plus another 4 spins matched. Key came for *50 so I could free roll for a bit, it was a tad on the low side and getting late so I wasn't committing. I got 10 keys within three quarters of an hour. The ninth was pot and I played on for a few more spins and bagged another key! 
Most unusual session? I was on one key for nine hours and £50 in profit without getting the pot. Next key was pot for a lovely but gruelling £450 odd raise. 
Biggest spins for key? 422. Ouch. Bad day. Just got off it and drove home pissed off. Came back two days later with an accomplice and played a marginal key and the 422 spins key. Got both within the hour for a £600 raise, bit of revenge there, was still down over all mind, that was the one time I did tilt and started doing £3 then £5 bets on key. Was the ONLY time I tilted mind. 
Biggest spins for zero? Seen 302 without. Once. Usually pops up well before 150! or well before 15 these days :0
Best ever pot/shop/raise? I found a 500/415 and 280 in one shop just before close. Brought an accomplice the next day. The 500 took about 7 hours but reset to 450 which took about 7 minutes! The 280 just dropped out and the 415 was about average and reset to 230 (didn't play, gone next time). Was a crazy profit well over a bag. 
Longest session? A 3 dayer, well evening, all day and morning, 17 hours.
Most memorable day? Not being able to leave the house until 3pm and going out with a half arsed cobbled together route of two 230ish keys in independents with one terminal in another independent I wasn't able to check earlier. Got the two 230s out within an hour including the twenty minute drive between them then stopped off to recheck the terminal and it was on 318 which dropped within 30 spins. 
Biggest loss? Not that big up to this point. Dropped the the odd ton here and there but all in all pretty sweet.

So that was up to Spring 2017 and I was loving key bets. The odd rusty nail, but rough with the smooth as they say.  

Then we come to the middle of 2017. I was retracing ground to see how well some shops got played. Clearly some shops were a waste of time but there was always that chance of a nice surprise. The whole thing seemed a bit more tiresome and tedious, the lustre was wearing off and I'd obviously been through my purple patch and was now experiencing bad variance, exacerbated by lesser pots to play.
Rather than a medley of skipping from shop to shop we now had a medley of driving back in rush hour traffic for another long sit. There was also another thorn in my side. The memo of doom was in circulation. 
A memo of doom is what happens when some minimum wage lackey gets the hump. They see some lads come in, repeatedly place a daft low variance bet and then BOOM land a big chunk of cash. Now there's no law against this but hell they try hard to make one up. The end result is usually correspondence in the form of internal memos gets passed around the shops and suddenly there's a bit of heat against the 2/2/1 bet. I personally have had no issues. I get the occasional staff member who will chat to me and is clearly clued up about key bets. On the whole they're actually supportive and make you drinks when it doesn't go your way. I always tip those staff all be it just a fiver or whatever as it's nice when someone goes the extra mile and key bets can be frustrating. 
Whilst hostile staff in arcades (they make doctor's receptionists look like The Samaritans) are not uncommon, in bookies most staff leave you be even if you're 200 miles from home and your accent doesn't fit.  
Anyway I think one of the places that had recently had a memo was Jenning's Bet and lo and behold I found myself sitting on a key in such an establishment. Having just watched a video someone had posted up on social media arguing with a staff member over the bet, I thought, let's make this a bit less obvious and do 2 red, 2 even and 1 key. That way rather than an endless string of bet 5 win 4 coming up on the computer at least there will be some £0 win and £8 win to mix it up and make it look just a tad more normal. 
So that's what I did and being an obsessive stat head I started counting the wins and losses on that 2 red 2 even with an ongoing tally in my head. So a red even is +1 and black odd -1. At the end of the session  I noted the plus or minus value accordingly. And here is where it gets a bit weird. 

Over 40 processes I was running at minus 150. I had no idea that this silly safe bet could attract so much variance. Even though the heat (if there ever was any) from the memos had subsided with no reports of being asked to leave at any shops, I persisted with this betting style. Surely I should be riding at near enough zero give or take 30 either way? That's before we crunch any stats. Anyway around about late Autumn 2017 I hit -250 and decided enough was enough, I was sticking to the 2 red 2 black as clearly something wasn't quite right and I was giving away an edge. This was only just the beginning of horrendous luck and suspicious statistics unfortunately for myself.

It was now an almost given that I'd have to come back on doors pretty much every other process. I had the most horrendous run of luck you could imagine. If I was running slightly hot in April 2017 I was bloody zero Kelvin come December 2017. The odds of a 100+ spins without key are 1 in 14 per key landed. The odds of 200+ spins without key are 1 in 207 per key landed. So as an average process is 12 keys you'd expect to see that one in every 18/19 key bets you play, not near enough every f**king one! Then in this last trimester I had four instances of 300+ at odds of nearly 3000-1 against from a sample size of 32 processes. Oh and two more 400+ without and a new record of 456 to beat my previous 422. The odds of a 400+ spin count per key are 43,000-1 against!!!! This was statistically significant surely? That's some pretty out there stats.

So I set up a WhatsApp group with the sole intention that regular key bet players I knew could share their stats. I asked people to submit the duration of a process in minutes. Admittedly as was suggested to me, pot start and pot finish would be more accurate, but it was all I could do to drag timings from most people.  
 A pattern formed over about 40 submissions within the month that the average process was around 200 minutes long, not the expected 153 minutes. Then Kesh started playing key bets and over about 10 processes he has never had one take more than 3 minutes so before we knew it the average time was down to minus five minutes to get pot and then the pictures of naked ladies started flooding in. No problems with that but it became clear that some people weren't submitting all their processes and the whole thing became a bit ramble shamble shambolic nonsense and I ended the group. 

The group was quite divisive. We had about 33% who would claim that the game was random and I was experiencing bad variance. We had 33% who couldn't give a shit as long as they had enough pub grub to get them through the weekend and 33% who did agree that things were not as they should be. 

So I looked at my good profit for the last bit of 2016 and first third of 2017. I looked at my moderate profit for the middle trimester of 2017 if you like and then I looked at the last bit of 2017 and I couldn't see any profit of note so thank God for the other non key bet bits and bobs that I did have. 

I made the executive decision to retire playing key bet as a main revenue stream. Competition was higher than ever before, the loyalty became tougher in all shops. Coral for example was now a £10 match every 55 minutes and you have to go back the next day to use it, not the same day. There were no bonuses on the Connect card. Ladbrokes switched £50 free play to spend £20 on line get £10 in shop, £10 on line match play/wagering. 

So from now on I'd only check local shops (35 miles or less from home) and limit the keys I played for my sanity. 

January was fair. There were 4 processes. Nothing great but I was winning between all 4, which with key bets these days is something to be content with. 

Then we come to THE MONSTER. The Daddy of all losses. The big KNOCKOUT PUNCH smack in the face not so mythical demon that is the 17 hour, £1100 loss, loss of sanity, greying of hair, elevation of dangerous heart disease enzymes in the liver entity. 

A day of trudging around endless Flatman power downs led me down the sinner's path. I stumbled into a Coral to be greeted by a 220 pot. Come on I was due a quick hit, bar a 15 minute miracle  in November (quite against the grain of the season) my luck had been heinous. The WhatsApp group had planted the seed in my mind that maybe I was getting unlucky and experiencing crazy stats. If I knew for sure the game was random I'd still play them aggressively today, all be it possibly paying a sitter to do the finger work. So that's a fifty raise for the 2.5 hours work plus the £25 loyalty and maybe a bonus on the card. Oh go on then. What a horrendous and UTTERLY soul destroying call that turned out to be. BRUTALLY punished for playing a marginal pot still +EV though. Key stayed at most cold almost all the way through. It was cold and 88 spins since when I got on it, it STAYED super cold throughout. It only left the cold side at the very end when the pot dropped just shy of 400. 

This is the straw that broke the camel's back. I know people make money from key bets and still do. However I've seen enough that I know something is not right. I can only hypothesise at exactly what, but let's go down this road....

Firstly, I have no issues with the RNG. As far as I know these are independently tested and verified and I see no reason why it shouldn't function correctly. If there was an error within the RNG we would surely see bizarre results both good and bad across all games. Losses on behalf of the bookie would be flagged very quickly and the necessary adjustments made. 
I believe it is the software that is at fault, namely the actual key bet program itself. I understand this falls under the copyright of Scientific Games. A rather shady company, too big for its boots, that instructs various AGC's to ban people and treat them as criminals and erroneously breach data protection and information governance law based on their high and mighty standpoint. Apparently pressing start buttons at the same time is triple 777 fraud. FRAUD?!? That's not fraud in a million years. Anyway I digress.  

Does anyone know exactly how the RNG works? How many numbers does it generate in a second and across what range? Presumably the number is in the order of many thousands or even millions as some slot games have many many different outcomes. This number has to be processed by the software and translated into an outcome. 

I believe the game to be compensated and not random. I believe the % payout is as stated, it's just that to reduce liability to the operator they've put in a safety buffer to offer less than the implied odds when the game gets ahead of % due to say someone betting big on singles and lucking out. 

Ok imagine a fictitious B2 game called heads or tails. You can bet £5 to £100 on the virtual toss of a coin. It's advertised as random and paying to 100%. There's an RNG piping into the terminal that generates random numbers 1,2,3 or 4 with equal chance of each number. It's all tested by Alderney blah blah blippety blop. When the game is paying over % 1,2 and 3 become losing outcomes and 4 becomes a winning outcome. When the game is under % then 1 and 2 are losing and 3 and 4 are winning.  Whilst this game wouldn't make much money for the bookie it demonstrates how something can operate under random laws but be compensated in nature. If the game was pulled off the terminal at any point, it's far more likely the bookie would be ahead. If someone has smashed in a few lucky £100 bets and knocked it right over percent, woe betide the poor chap who comes on next betting fivers. They'll feel right mugged off, but of course it's RANDOM. Occasionally Georgientific Games who operate heads or tails decide to scrape some value off the game because they can, they're on a profit share scheme and they're a bunch of cunts. OK that may not actually happen but you get the gist. 

This is how I believe Key bet works and has always worked but the skew has been made harsher as the gravy train for the bookie FOBT is facing a potential neutering. 
I think on a dead terminal you're actually getting as long as 76/1 on a single whilst the implied odds are clearly half that. There also seem to be more dead terminals these days all though that could be coincidence as Kesh is still getting key pot in 4 minutes or less. There's also lots of subtle caveats to how the compensation operates. If you have 25p on zero and £1 on key the game has to bias accordingly if dead. 1-36 will be most likely with a slight bias against zero and a bigger bias against key. If the game is under % then don't worry it'll be totally fair and only bad luck can get in your way. It's just shit like getting 30 odd keys when you expect 70 and you get 70 lots of five and ten miraculously. Then the 207-1 shot coming in four times out of 30 keys. Then multiply that shit over many processes and surely it's not irrational or 'just noticing patterns' or 'putting on a tin foil hat?'.

If you don't believe me start noting your own stats and bet £2 red/£2 even or similar variant and record your + vs -. 

Also what was that £5 free bet that popped up every so often due to 'an error in incremental pot values' message that we saw back in Autumn 2017?

It's relevant and worthy of note that Realistic Games were prosecuted for their on line 'hi lo gambler' game offering different to implied odds to the player. Thread on Casinomeister forums. 


Sorry for the long post but wanted that off my chest (much lighter now) and will now await the flaming!
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#2
Longest ever post on this forum award goes to..
Marching on together
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#3
I do apologise for making your eyes bleed. If you're not a key bet player, it will be a rather boring read....



...if you are a key bet player, it will be a rather boring read.


Sorry about that.
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Fenso
#4
(02-22-2018, 02:57 AM)JG vs SG Wrote: If you play or are aware of how key bet roulette works, please scroll down to the asterisks to save wasting your time. Thank you. If not, please read on. 

Key bet roulette is a game currently available to play in licensed betting offices where the fixed odds betting content is supplied by Scientific Games UK. 

The premise is straightforward. It's a category B2 random game that allows stakes of £5-£100 on a virtual roulette wheel  that has the standard numbers 0-36 and an extra key bet slot. Around the perimeter of the roulette wheel are 11 multiplier values and a 'POT' value of which one will be highlighted before the spin on the roulette wheel. The multipliers are x50,x50,x45,x40,x40,x35,x30,x30,x25,x20,x20 and the POT position will award the progressively increasing pot if the key bet slot is bet upon and the ball lands in key bet. 

I'm pretty sure for the vast majority of you I didn't need to type that. The game has been around for over a decade and it's no secret that many people travel around looking for key bets on good pots. To fulfil the minimum bet criteria they place £2 on red, £2 on black (or other such even money bets that oppose each other), £1 on key bet which is necessary to win the pot and repeat bet until their 38*12 or 1 in 456 shot comes in and they bag the pot. At roughly 3 spins per minute this equates to an average time of two and a half hours and an average cost of £167 to get the pot. You're going to get an average of £35 for landing the key on a £1 bet, 11 times for every pot. so that's 36 instances of losing a quid, one instance (0) of losing £5 and one instance (key bet) of making £30. so 11*£11=£121. Then the final cycle the same but you pay an extra £36+£5+£5 for the pot. so £121+£46 there's your cost. For every £5 staked the pot goes up by just over 6p (6.15p to be more precise) so you'll get an extra £28 of pot increases on top of the original pot when you win it. 
All this is assuming perfect average behaviour, no variance at all which in real life is not going to happen at all often. However we can say taking on key bets at £150 will be a venture on which you break even (before loyalty). The £150 pot point give or take a few squibbly wibbly pence is the break even point. Beyond that we are looking at profit. 
Playing key bets for profit is a very competitive game these days. If you want to take a seat you better be prepared to play £220 or above which is £70 profit or above for 2.5 hours work. A reasonable wage for a boring job. You get the odd mad shop whereby you find a bonkers high pot. However don't be banking on that. So let's get into the story.

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I've always spread myself rather thin. The most common slot machine player activity is to travel from pub to pub playing hi-tech AWP with the goal of daily profit. I've always enjoyed a mix. On a day I decide to play slots, I'll visit bingo, pubs, arcades and bookmakers, in fact almost any venue that offers cat B2/B3/C/D gaming machines. I've always been aware of key bet and had played a handful of them up until 2016. I didn't really entertain the game much. This is because you need a lot of time to play them if things don't go your way, they're competitively targeted by not just hardcore professional fruit machine players but also people who wouldn't know a p1 What's in your box if it shouted 'good one, it's a jackpot!' in their faces. Gangs of Albanians, retired librarians from Bromley, professional boxers from Crewe, a train driver from Wrexham, in essence keen amateurs who have sussed the premise of the game from a pot chaser's perspective etc etc. There was always enough 'other stuff' to make playing key bets a fairly unattractive proposition for me. I'd have the odd look in a bookie if I was passing but I had never considered actively driving around a route of bookmakers thinking 'hey you know what, I'm going to make it my sole purpose today to actively seek out a good pot and chase it out'. 
Cast your mind to late 2016. Pub fruits were granite. Sure there were bits bloops and blops. The main problem was that these blops, blips and blaps were gold dust to everyone. With less casual play than ever before and more players in the game ,every type of venue was most likely decidedly burnt. Also at the time Coral were offering a very attractive loyalty for their shops. Wager £400 on roulette whilst logged into the terminal with a Coral Connect and you'll get a £10 match play. That's 80 spins. So on a 450 spin process that's £50+ of free play. Not to mention the extra bonuses you got on your Coral Connect card after wagering consistently with Coral. You'd get £50 match play for fun after a while. So anyhow that 220 key which before looked like a rather sad grind, is a little more tasty. It's £120+ profit with the loyalty, play 2/3 in a day and you're smashing the national average wage. Easy money eh? 
So off I go not expected to be amazed. I cast my mind back a few years earlier when myself and Rob had worked our way around Birmingham playing Pure Pots on £20 spins ( a story for another day). I had checked the key bets on this route and had seen just one or two over the £200 mark. Hence, I was not expecting to be amazed in any way shape of form. This was an experimental day and if I went out and found nothing, I had seen, tried and failed to conquer but lived to fight another day. 
The first shop I walked into was a Coral and the first terminal I loaded was £420. Bloody hell! What I find. I instantly signed up to my brand new Connect card and things went to plan. two hours later I was £300 richer! Nice. 


The first quarter of 2017 saw my main income come from key bet roulette. I had good and bad processes but it was a Welcome revenue stream. I always keep statistics of the processes. I'm quite an obsessive personality and like to know what's what and make sure everything is in order. So I'd note down pot level at start, pot level when I won it and I'd keep a tally of 0s/5s/10s and Key bets along with numbers that have come in with the shot on the POT position on outer wheel and the values of the multipliers when key bet has landed. 
By around April 2017 and about 60 processes in, I could see that I was slightly unlucky with my frequency of key bet, I was getting key every 41-42 spins on average. However I was actually lucky on the length of time I had to sit, my average being two hours seventeen minutes. I tended to get key pot before 12 keys and as for 5/10/0 well pretty much bang on 1 in 38 with zero being ever so slightly warm. Over all I deduced I was running, 'slightly hot'. 

Let's have a quick resume of some highs and lows.

My quickest ever key. Three spins. It may have been four. 
Most number of keys in one shop played solo? Three keys varying from 250-280 all next to each other. It was a 4.5 hour session to get them all (playing simultaneously) and a disappointing £100 profit. 
Hottest ever key? Well key was already hottest number and this was a relatively low pot, a 220 in a Ladbrokes. I was only playing it for my GRID card loyalty and had I think a £20 match play. so that's 4 spins plus another 4 spins matched. Key came for *50 so I could free roll for a bit, it was a tad on the low side and getting late so I wasn't committing. I got 10 keys within three quarters of an hour. The ninth was pot and I played on for a few more spins and bagged another key! 
Most unusual session? I was on one key for nine hours and £50 in profit without getting the pot. Next key was pot for a lovely but gruelling £450 odd raise. 
Biggest spins for key? 422. Ouch. Bad day. Just got off it and drove home pissed off. Came back two days later with an accomplice and played a marginal key and the 422 spins key. Got both within the hour for a £600 raise, bit of revenge there, was still down over all mind, that was the one time I did tilt and started doing £3 then £5 bets on key. Was the ONLY time I tilted mind. 
Biggest spins for zero? Seen 302 without. Once. Usually pops up well before 150! or well before 15 these days :0
Best ever pot/shop/raise? I found a 500/415 and 280 in one shop just before close. Brought an accomplice the next day. The 500 took about 7 hours but reset to 450 which took about 7 minutes! The 280 just dropped out and the 415 was about average and reset to 230 (didn't play, gone next time). Was a crazy profit well over a bag. 
Longest session? A 3 dayer, well evening, all day and morning, 17 hours.
Most memorable day? Not being able to leave the house until 3pm and going out with a half arsed cobbled together route of two 230ish keys in independents with one terminal in another independent I wasn't able to check earlier. Got the two 230s out within an hour including the twenty minute drive between them then stopped off to recheck the terminal and it was on 318 which dropped within 30 spins. 
Biggest loss? Not that big up to this point. Dropped the the odd ton here and there but all in all pretty sweet.

So that was up to Spring 2017 and I was loving key bets. The odd rusty nail, but rough with the smooth as they say.  

Then we come to the middle of 2017. I was retracing ground to see how well some shops got played. Clearly some shops were a waste of time but there was always that chance of a nice surprise. The whole thing seemed a bit more tiresome and tedious, the lustre was wearing off and I'd obviously been through my purple patch and was now experiencing bad variance, exacerbated by lesser pots to play.
Rather than a medley of skipping from shop to shop we now had a medley of driving back in rush hour traffic for another long sit. There was also another thorn in my side. The memo of doom was in circulation. 
A memo of doom is what happens when some minimum wage lackey gets the hump. They see some lads come in, repeatedly place a daft low variance bet and then BOOM land a big chunk of cash. Now there's no law against this but hell they try hard to make one up. The end result is usually correspondence in the form of internal memos gets passed around the shops and suddenly there's a bit of heat against the 2/2/1 bet. I personally have had no issues. I get the occasional staff member who will chat to me and is clearly clued up about key bets. On the whole they're actually supportive and make you drinks when it doesn't go your way. I always tip those staff all be it just a fiver or whatever as it's nice when someone goes the extra mile and key bets can be frustrating. 
Whilst hostile staff in arcades (they make doctor's receptionists look like The Samaritans) are not uncommon, in bookies most staff leave you be even if you're 200 miles from home and your accent doesn't fit.  
Anyway I think one of the places that had recently had a memo was Jenning's Bet and lo and behold I found myself sitting on a key in such an establishment. Having just watched a video someone had posted up on social media arguing with a staff member over the bet, I thought, let's make this a bit less obvious and do 2 red, 2 even and 1 key. That way rather than an endless string of bet 5 win 4 coming up on the computer at least there will be some £0 win and £8 win to mix it up and make it look just a tad more normal. 
So that's what I did and being an obsessive stat head I started counting the wins and losses on that 2 red 2 even with an ongoing tally in my head. So a red even is +1 and black odd -1. At the end of the session  I noted the plus or minus value accordingly. And here is where it gets a bit weird. 

Over 40 processes I was running at minus 150. I had no idea that this silly safe bet could attract so much variance. Even though the heat (if there ever was any) from the memos had subsided with no reports of being asked to leave at any shops, I persisted with this betting style. Surely I should be riding at near enough zero give or take 30 either way? That's before we crunch any stats. Anyway around about late Autumn 2017 I hit -250 and decided enough was enough, I was sticking to the 2 red 2 black as clearly something wasn't quite right and I was giving away an edge. This was only just the beginning of horrendous luck and suspicious statistics unfortunately for myself.

It was now an almost given that I'd have to come back on doors pretty much every other process. I had the most horrendous run of luck you could imagine. If I was running slightly hot in April 2017 I was bloody zero Kelvin come December 2017. The odds of a 100+ spins without key are 1 in 14 per key landed. The odds of 200+ spins without key are 1 in 207 per key landed. So as an average process is 12 keys you'd expect to see that one in every 18/19 key bets you play, not near enough every f**king one! Then in this last trimester I had four instances of 300+ at odds of nearly 3000-1 against from a sample size of 32 processes. Oh and two more 400+ without and a new record of 456 to beat my previous 422. The odds of a 400+ spin count per key are 43,000-1 against!!!! This was statistically significant surely? That's some pretty out there stats.

So I set up a WhatsApp group with the sole intention that regular key bet players I knew could share their stats. I asked people to submit the duration of a process in minutes. Admittedly as was suggested to me, pot start and pot finish would be more accurate, but it was all I could do to drag timings from most people.  
 A pattern formed over about 40 submissions within the month that the average process was around 200 minutes long, not the expected 153 minutes. Then Kesh started playing key bets and over about 10 processes he has never had one take more than 3 minutes so before we knew it the average time was down to minus five minutes to get pot and then the pictures of naked ladies started flooding in. No problems with that but it became clear that some people weren't submitting all their processes and the whole thing became a bit ramble shamble shambolic nonsense and I ended the group. 

The group was quite divisive. We had about 33% who would claim that the game was random and I was experiencing bad variance. We had 33% who couldn't give a shit as long as they had enough pub grub to get them through the weekend and 33% who did agree that things were not as they should be. 

So I looked at my good profit for the last bit of 2016 and first third of 2017. I looked at my moderate profit for the middle trimester of 2017 if you like and then I looked at the last bit of 2017 and I couldn't see any profit of note so thank God for the other non key bet bits and bobs that I did have. 

I made the executive decision to retire playing key bet as a main revenue stream. Competition was higher than ever before, the loyalty became tougher in all shops. Coral for example was now a £10 match every 55 minutes and you have to go back the next day to use it, not the same day. There were no bonuses on the Connect card. Ladbrokes switched £50 free play to spend £20 on line get £10 in shop, £10 on line match play/wagering. 

So from now on I'd only check local shops (35 miles or less from home) and limit the keys I played for my sanity. 

January was fair. There were 4 processes. Nothing great but I was winning between all 4, which with key bets these days is something to be content with. 

Then we come to THE MONSTER. The Daddy of all losses. The big KNOCKOUT PUNCH smack in the face not so mythical demon that is the 17 hour, £1100 loss, loss of sanity, greying of hair, elevation of dangerous heart disease enzymes in the liver entity. 

A day of trudging around endless Flatman power downs led me down the sinner's path. I stumbled into a Coral to be greeted by a 220 pot. Come on I was due a quick hit, bar a 15 minute miracle  in November (quite against the grain of the season) my luck had been heinous. The WhatsApp group had planted the seed in my mind that maybe I was getting unlucky and experiencing crazy stats. If I knew for sure the game was random I'd still play them aggressively today, all be it possibly paying a sitter to do the finger work. So that's a fifty raise for the 2.5 hours work plus the £25 loyalty and maybe a bonus on the card. Oh go on then. What a horrendous and UTTERLY soul destroying call that turned out to be. BRUTALLY punished for playing a marginal pot still +EV though. Key stayed at most cold almost all the way through. It was cold and 88 spins since when I got on it, it STAYED super cold throughout. It only left the cold side at the very end when the pot dropped just shy of 400. 

This is the straw that broke the camel's back. I know people make money from key bets and still do. However I've seen enough that I know something is not right. I can only hypothesise at exactly what, but let's go down this road....

Firstly, I have no issues with the RNG. As far as I know these are independently tested and verified and I see no reason why it shouldn't function correctly. If there was an error within the RNG we would surely see bizarre results both good and bad across all games. Losses on behalf of the bookie would be flagged very quickly and the necessary adjustments made. 
I believe it is the software that is at fault, namely the actual key bet program itself. I understand this falls under the copyright of Scientific Games. A rather shady company, too big for its boots, that instructs various AGC's to ban people and treat them as criminals and erroneously breach data protection and information governance law based on their high and mighty standpoint. Apparently pressing start buttons at the same time is triple 777 fraud. FRAUD?!? That's not fraud in a million years. Anyway I digress.  

Does anyone know exactly how the RNG works? How many numbers does it generate in a second and across what range? Presumably the number is in the order of many thousands or even millions as some slot games have many many different outcomes. This number has to be processed by the software and translated into an outcome. 

I believe the game to be compensated and not random. I believe the % payout is as stated, it's just that to reduce liability to the operator they've put in a safety buffer to offer less than the implied odds when the game gets ahead of % due to say someone betting big on singles and lucking out. 

Ok imagine a fictitious B2 game called heads or tails. You can bet £5 to £100 on the virtual toss of a coin. It's advertised as random and paying to 100%. There's an RNG piping into the terminal that generates random numbers 1,2,3 or 4 with equal chance of each number. It's all tested by Alderney blah blah blippety blop. When the game is paying over % 1,2 and 3 become losing outcomes and 4 becomes a winning outcome. When the game is under % then 1 and 2 are losing and 3 and 4 are winning.  Whilst this game wouldn't make much money for the bookie it demonstrates how something can operate under random laws but be compensated in nature. If the game was pulled off the terminal at any point, it's far more likely the bookie would be ahead. If someone has smashed in a few lucky £100 bets and knocked it right over percent, woe betide the poor chap who comes on next betting fivers. They'll feel right mugged off, but of course it's RANDOM. Occasionally Georgientific Games who operate heads or tails decide to scrape some value off the game because they can, they're on a profit share scheme and they're a bunch of cunts. OK that may not actually happen but you get the gist. 

This is how I believe Key bet works and has always worked but the skew has been made harsher as the gravy train for the bookie FOBT is facing a potential neutering. 
I think on a dead terminal you're actually getting as long as 76/1 on a single whilst the implied odds are clearly half that. There also seem to be more dead terminals these days all though that could be coincidence as Kesh is still getting key pot in 4 minutes or less. There's also lots of subtle caveats to how the compensation operates. If you have 25p on zero and £1 on key the game has to bias accordingly if dead. 1-36 will be most likely with a slight bias against zero and a bigger bias against key. If the game is under % then don't worry it'll be totally fair and only bad luck can get in your way. It's just shit like getting 30 odd keys when you expect 70 and you get 70 lots of five and ten miraculously. Then the 207-1 shot coming in four times out of 30 keys. Then multiply that shit over many processes and surely it's not irrational or 'just noticing patterns' or 'putting on a tin foil hat?'.

If you don't believe me start noting your own stats and bet £2 red/£2 even or similar variant and record your + vs -. 

Also what was that £5 free bet that popped up every so often due to 'an error in incremental pot values' message that we saw back in Autumn 2017?

It's relevant and worthy of note that Realistic Games were prosecuted for their on line 'hi lo gambler' game offering different to implied odds to the player. Thread on Casinomeister forums. 


Sorry for the long post but wanted that off my chest (much lighter now) and will now await the flaming!

K
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The following 1 user Likes Moff's post:
Toastie
#5
Never played a bookies wheel but that was a cracking read.
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The following 1 user Likes jokepoteer's post:
JG vs SG
#6
I normally get bored with longggggggggggggggggggggg posts but I read the whole thing - best long post for a long time.

I don't play keys purely because of the amount of time needed to get them out - but still enjoyed the read.
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The following 1 user Likes dondplayer's post:
JG vs SG
#7
All my suspicions made true. To be fair, I've never sessioned one out due to A) fearing my variance would always be lengthy sessions because my luck always runneth badly and I'd always have to do it the hard way. b) Skewed programming - I'm similar to you and the psychology of the results would always make me call programming shenanigans.
Oh, and c) I'd always be the guy getting hassle off Mr Polish voyeur and Mr spotty desk clerk moaning at my bet system.
I just don't have it in me to go more than three hours or so on anything either. At least when I play certain lo tecs that play up, I know it's coming out after a max of 3 hours or so. I tried playing the 88 Fortunes at a bookies the other day on 88p spins. The graphic was full and 2 hrs later I finally got the lid closed for mini. I'd already lost the will to live and that's with more going on to watch than Key Bet offers you. Just don't have the psyche for it. I guess the only answer is to get a meeting with SG so they can break down their 'legit' code. LetsGiveitaSpin managed a live stream meet with the CEO of Big Time Gaming, even though nothing of any value was divulged, just the odd few interesting stats. However, he's a popular streamer so it worked in the companies public interest to take part. I guess SG aren't going to entertain a man from Coventry asking what magic powder they put in their systems.
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The following 1 user Likes kidgloves's post:
Gambo
#8
I can't see how the game can be bent. B2 games HAVE to be random, and the idea that compensation has been introduced into some later version and then surreptitiously enabled on the terminal is quite fanciful. No way is something like that going to get past compliance and testing. The LBO's simply wouldn't entertain something like this - they've got too much to lose and the fines would be astronomical and for what? To stop a few savvy players eking out a living wage? If the game is becoming too much of a nuisance for them they'll just pull it from the menus and get whoever made it to remove or reduce the player advantage, at which point the whole game would need to be retested before being deployed. There is no way any intentional compensation can be going on. You've either been incredibly unlucky, or the game or RNG has become corrupted somehow. Something like that might be local to that particular instance of the game, or across the whole network. I'm fucked if I know exactly how all that works to be honest, but game-wise there's no way it can suddenly be compensated. Those figures in your original post do seem very unusual and extremely unlikely though, I must admit. Stone-cold literally overnight. I probably would be doubting the fairness of the game myself in those circumstances.
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#9
I enjoyed reading that, cheers for taking the time to type it all up and post it.

Don't really have more to add as I've never seen or played a KeyBet.
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The following 1 user Likes Chop's post:
JG vs SG
#10
Stats can be misleading tbf. I must have run at like way over 100% plus on normal roulette over a long period and other people could be running way under.
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#11
I'd say that manufacturers don't need to get things re-tested if they update critical elements of a game. Let's take a perfect example.

Mega Pots In William Hill B2 and B3 versions of the game.
The game used to be able to drop the pots anytime after
£50 pot 1
£100 pot 2
£200 pot 3
£300 pot 4
£400 pot 5

However, they released a patch for the game and it blatantly 'held' on to the pots until the latter threshold of those pots, it was 100% a patch as if you found a factory reset unit after the initial patch then the pots could drop early.

I think To class Mega Pots as random game was a farce too.

Rob
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#12
Jackpot King the same, they released an update where the pot could sit on £499.XX for weeks lol.
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#13
Don't like what they did with power up. Those P3s that reset the pots to 100 and make them rip everything changes the gameplay and therefore the way you approach the machine, I guess you can look at it and say well the gameplay isn't going to change for the punter, therefore it shouldn't need a retest, but I personally think it's a significant enough change to be considered a bit cheeky
They've tightened the pwofile on this, it hates the britzes dunnit?
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The following 1 user Likes jerz92's post:
megastreaklover01
#14
I've heard of an instance where keybet wasn't seen for 580 spins. But also keybet can come in twice in 2 spins which is 38 * 38 = 1/1444 which is even less likely but does happen.  I think gamblers fallacy has crept in and you've been expecting a random outcome to follow a pattern.  For example 6 reds in a row does not make it any more likely the next number will be black.  So 1000 spins with no KB still doesn't make it any more likely and as far as the RNG is concerned past results are irrelevant
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The following 1 user Likes Moff's post:
megastreaklover01
#15
Had 4 keys in a row ...once.

Any ive had all sorts of versions reset pots to max on batmans jez
#Martalife
#Seshlife
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#16
(02-22-2018, 10:27 PM)streakseims Wrote: Had 4 keys in a row ...once.

Any ive had all sorts of versions reset pots to max on batmans jez

What are the differences between programmes? Never even knew there was a p2 never mind a p3
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#17
What’s the odds of OB beating roulette over a lifetime?

My friend hit keybet 3 time in 4 spins last week the last one landing the pot? Odds of that? I don’t know but no doubt rediculously high. Much higher than not landing a key in a few hundred spins. The problem is George is that your answer to that is simply compensation kicking in!! Come on!!

It makes me laugh when people harp on about the 5 and 10 tilting you. They’re just losing numbers next to the key on the wheel. No different to landing any other numbers. Nothing is made of the fact that 27 and 4 are in the hot numbers for 2hrs. Some numbers have to be hot and cold.

We’ve debated this several times George. Imo they’re random. Would it surprise me if they were bent? No. Unfortunately you’ll never be able to prove they are or indeed aren’t. But there are still people running around earning a wage off then so I would suggest not bent.

You obviously run as bad on keybets (at the moment) as I’ve done on megapots overall George. At least ur still in profit on the game. Something I’ll never be on megapots.

As for the batman posts. Moff p1’s couldn’t 3 hold on the feature. So I’m told. I’ve never played one tho.

However if you don’t realise why cashpots reset back to a ton on either p1 or p2 then I’m amazed you’ve ever won a coin on the game.
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#18
(02-22-2018, 08:50 PM)AMK Wrote: I'd say that manufacturers don't need to get things re-tested if they update critical elements of a game. Let's take a perfect example.

Mega Pots In William Hill B2 and B3 versions of the game.
The game used to be able to drop the pots anytime after
£50 pot 1
£100 pot 2
£200 pot 3
£300 pot 4
£400 pot 5

However, they released a patch for the game and it blatantly 'held' on to the pots until the latter threshold of those pots, it was 100% a patch as if you found a factory reset unit after the initial patch then the pots could drop early.

I think To class Mega Pots as random game was a farce too.

Rob

I’ve heard the developers of online slots say they can’t change the game without going through all the test processes again along with tons of other red tape. It seems there are several version of bonanza out there. No explanation given for what they are or what changes were made? While I don’t agree with George’s keybet theory at the end of the day who the fuck would know any different if SG had tweaked something? The answer is nobody.

Jackpot king is a compensated game rob. Do they have to play by different rules. Did that update have to go through all the criteria again to get put out there? I doubt it.
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#19
You’re never gonna know with random games at the end of the day one way or another. Had I been backing against 9/22/31 and doing a albeit stupid bet on 33/37 numbers to make shit all had I had the same results I’d be convinced as fuck it was bent.

It’s the same sort of idiotic bet you see people do all the time in bookies and you think why the fuck are you betting a score (or 50/100 in some cases)  to win £22-30 quid (60-120 in the higher stake cases)?at most!
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#20
(02-23-2018, 01:38 AM)PMK Wrote: What’s the odds of OB beating roulette over a lifetime?

My friend hit keybet 3 time in 4 spins last week the last one landing the pot? Odds of that? I don’t know but no doubt rediculously high. Much higher than not landing a key in a few hundred spins. The problem is George is that your answer to that is simply compensation kicking in!! Come on!!

It makes me laugh when people harp on about the 5 and 10 tilting you. They’re just losing numbers next to the key on the wheel. No different to landing any other numbers. Nothing is made of the fact that 27 and 4 are in the hot numbers for 2hrs. Some numbers have to be hot and cold.

We’ve debated this several times George. Imo they’re random. Would it surprise me if they were bent? No. Unfortunately you’ll never be able to prove they are or indeed aren’t. But there  are still people running around earning a wage off then so I would suggest not bent.

You obviously run as bad on keybets (at the moment) as I’ve done on megapots overall George. At least ur still in profit on the game. Something I’ll never be on megapots.

As for the batman posts. Moff p1’s couldn’t 3 hold on the feature. So I’m told. I’ve never played one tho.

However if you don’t realise why cashpots reset back to a ton on either p1 or p2 then I’m amazed you’ve ever won a coin on the game.

Never had a pot reset so must be getting them the right way.. p1s could hold 3 times for a feature and even for barcode but once in every 10-15 times you'd try at the very best
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